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How will Turkey's New Position Affect Its Relations with the US, Syria and Israel?

Serpil Açıkalın
00:00 - 1/07/2010 Perşembe
Güncelleme: 13:53 - 1/07/2010 Perşembe
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How will Turkey's New Position Affect Its Relation
How will Turkey's New Position Affect Its Relation

After the increased tensions and many problems we have had with Israel following the 2009 Gaza attacks, we find ourselves today at the nadir of the relationship between Israel and Turkey. Although Turkey has criticized Israel's regional policies from time to time since the mid-1960s, it has never been this strong rhetorically. This was also the first time that Turks were killed by the Israelis.


In fact, the last Marmara flotilla event also presented an opportunity for Turkey to test her ability to persuade the international community. Yet, since the Marmara flotilla events, the failure to even establish an impartial commission and the increased tensions with the US and Israel have been narrowing Turkey's room to manoeuvre.


From Turkey's perspective, it has been thought that its long-standing good relations with Iran and Syria have contributed to the region's stability, and as a consequence this situation has ensured Turkey's domestic security and economic improvement. Since the 2000s Turkey has not been opposed to Syria. The US and the international community didn't like Turkey's position towards Syria for a long time. Yet, in the last decade the US and the international community have began to soften their language towards Syria. Today, Turkey thinks that Iran's position is also not very different from Syria's past position. Turkey thinks that it helped to change the international community's perception towards Syria. Thus, Turkey thought that Syria might be seen as an example, and that Turkey might play an important role to similarly engage and transform Iran. Yet, the point is that Iran and Syria have different characteristics in the eyes of Western countries and other countries in the region, and Turkey could not understand this at first.


Also the most recent swap deal was perceived as a great success by the Turkish government and media, though the result was a disappointment for Turkey. Indeed, Turkey's vote against the sanctions for Iran was also an obligation for Turkey after her efforts for the swap deal. And in terms of Washington, the genie was out of the bottle and the other countries in the UN Security Council had already been persuaded so it was not possible for the U.S. to change its plans. So, due to the past and most recent experiences, from the United States' point of view, Turkey is a country whose vote is difficult to predict. For this reason, the US is aware that when it needs Turkey in any matter it must consider each issue one by one.

However, from the perspective of the Turkish public, there are many uncertainties about the U.S. First, people wonder if there is a tacit consensus between Turkey and the US on Turkey's recent efforts or if the U.S. is concerned that Turkey's most recent efforts have harmed its region. Those holding the former position on this issue think that the U.S. is not comfortable with Israel's offensive behavior in the region anymore and that Turkey is handling Israel's maverick attitude.


In any case, as the problems of the West and Israel with Iran stem from the Iranian regime, Turkey's assumption that the swap deal can solve the Iran problem has showed Turkey's misreading of the region and of Western perceptions. From the point of Israel and the U.S. there are two important issues in the region: The first is the Iranian regime and the second is the non-state actors (Hamas and Hezbollah) and their armament. However, it has been seen that Turkey, following an idealist approach, states that it is necessary to embrace an engagement policy with these actors, while Israel and the U.S. seem to follow a more realistic and security-oriented approach. That example alone shows that Turkey and particularly Israel do not use the same language when dealing with problems.

However, even if the relationship between Israel and Turkey deteriorates to a very dreadful level, from Turkey's perspective, the most important issue here is not disrupting the relationship with the U.S. Because, although it has advanced economy, democratic structure and a better level of life with the capacity to be the leader of the region, on the global level, Turkey is aware that it's not a super power country like the U.S. Being aware that Israel has become a bigger burden for the U.S.' regional policies because of its everlasting security perceptions, Turkey knows that it should be in coordination with the United States. Therefore, in recent days a Turkish delegation met with-US officials to prevent the loss of U.S. support and to protect the balance.


Furthermore, Turkey is also aware that neither itself nor another country can make peace in the region without the support and consent of the U.S. From Turkey's point of view, although it is forming ties with the Middle East it constantly draws attention to its path towards to the West. Even though the goal remains to join the EU, it is a known reality that the EU is also 'a smaller actor' compared to the U.S. And Turkey is also aware that the Jewish lobby will disturb Turkey's interests by working against Turkey in the U.S. congress.


When we come to the Arab perspective we see that Arab states, including Syria, do not prefer that Turkey keep its distance from the West. This is because Arabs think that Turkey may end their isolation and that Turkey must play a mediator role as it can speak on their behalf at the negotiating table. The many Arab scholars and journalists that come to Turkey have repeated this over and over again. However, it is impossible to expect that Turkey may convene again with the existing Israeli government. The Turkish government has also constantly revealed that rather than the idea of Israel's right to existence or the people of Israel, its problem is with the Israeli government. For that reason, against today's hawkish Israeli government Turkey is no longer an impartial mediator and represents a side. Thus, it is not so difficult to predict that Turkey's mediation in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict cannot be carried out with the present Israeli government. With respect to Iran, henceforth Turkey will only act after its help has been requested.


Considering the recent events in Turkish domestic politics, it can be seen that Turkey has been carrying a huge burden. In September, a constitutional referendum is to be held, an election is to be held in one year at most, and increased terrorist activity will cause Turkey to focus on the domestic issues in the close future. Due to the last weeks' terrorist activities, Turkish soldiers were killed almost every day. In a recent attack, 11 Turkish soldiers were killed by terrorists, just one day after a Turkish soldier was killed, and the next day two soldiers and one civilian were killed by a bomb explosion. The whole country has compelled the Turkish Government to take stronger measures against the PKK terrorist organization. Therefore, as there is a need for the support of the U.S. in the fight against terrorism and cooperation with the Iraqi Kurdish administration, Turkey has to maintain sound relations with these countries. Turkey, in the coming period, will focus more on domestic security issues, and in a regional sense will only wait for Israel to soften, and aim to not lose the public support of the international community.


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